Baník Ostrava 1-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava host Slovan Liberec at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Baník Ostrava are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baník Ostrava register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Slovan Liberec in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Baník Ostrava, 0 for Slovan Liberec and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 73% versus Slovan Liberec 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 73% | Slovan Liberec 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.99 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.280 / defence 1.376 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.867 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.204. Baník Ostrava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slovan Liberec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Baník Ostrava games / 22 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 50% | Draw 22% | Slovan Liberec 28%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Slovan Liberec 3.57. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 80% | Slovan Liberec 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 50% | Draw 22% | Slovan Liberec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.99 / Slovan Liberec 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.280 / def 1.376 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.867 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Slovan Liberec xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 50% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec?
Record (1 meetings): Baník Ostrava 1W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 0W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (1.28) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
50%
1.98
22%
4.61
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.43
1.44
Slovan Liberec xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
4%
26.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.44 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 22 games, going 13W 6D 3L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 6W 3D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 0.95 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 13W 6D 3L in their last 22 games (2.05 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.91 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovan Liberec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
4
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Slovan Liberec 1-0 Baník Ostrava.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baník Ostrava at 82%, Slovan Liberec at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Baník Ostrava and 54% for Slovan Liberec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Baník Ostrava's games and 64% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 54% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava and Slovan Liberec finished level at 1-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.99 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.44 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.28 / defence 1.38 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.87 / defence 1.34, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 50% | Draw 22% | Slovan Liberec 28%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 73%, Slovan Liberec 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.