Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Dukla Praha at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mlada Boleslav have gone 4W 5D 1L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Mlada Boleslav have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dukla Praha — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Dukla Praha's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Mlada Boleslav have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Dukla Praha 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Dukla Praha — a Mlada Boleslav win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 60% versus Dukla Praha 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 63% | Dukla Praha 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.62 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.095 / defence 0.991 | Dukla Praha attack 0.653 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.199. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 57 games and Dukla Praha's last 57.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 56% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 16%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.78 | Draw 3.62 | Dukla Praha 6.14. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 60% (last 10 home games) | Dukla Praha 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 56% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.62 / Dukla Praha 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.095 / def 0.991 | Dukla Praha attack 0.653 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 56% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mlada Boleslav's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 57 games and Dukla Praha's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.62
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.40
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
3%
31.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.78 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 18W 17D 27L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Dukla Praha's form line: 10W 22D 30L from 62 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.15 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 32 home games (10W 10D 12L).
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 3W 12D 17L from their last 32 away games — 0.66 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.79 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Dukla Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 18W 17D 27L in their last 62 games (1.15 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 10W 22D 30L in their last 62 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Dukla Praha away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.25 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 12 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
1
Draws
3
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2026: Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 53%, Dukla Praha 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mlada Boleslav) and 38% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 41% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 38% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 66% of Dukla Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 29, as Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.62 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Dukla Praha attack 0.65 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 56% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 16%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 63%, Dukla Praha 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (62 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (62 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.15 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.