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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.

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Full Analysis

Andruv stadion plays host to Sigma Olomouc versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 5W 3D 2L at Andruv stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andruv stadion than their overall form suggests.

Mlada Boleslav (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mlada Boleslav's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Across 9 previous meetings, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sigma Olomouc and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 52% versus Mlada Boleslav 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 54% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.899 / defence 0.842 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.934 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.118. Data: 56 Sigma Olomouc games / 56 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 23%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Mlada Boleslav 4.35. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 20% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.

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