Karviná 1-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Karviná face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Town Stadium Karvina plays host to Karviná versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Karviná's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Slavia Praha have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 0.70 PPG clear of Karviná over their recent games (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Karviná's last 10 home games and Slavia Praha's last 10 away games) — Karviná have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Slavia Praha in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Slavia Praha, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Karviná 1–3 Slavia Praha — a Slavia Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Slavia Praha have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 4.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 62% versus Slavia Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 66% | Slavia Praha 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Karviná surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Slavia Praha have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 100% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.20 xG and Slavia Praha 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.957 / defence 1.091 | Slavia Praha attack 1.190 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.201. Data: built from Karviná's last 51 games and Slavia Praha's last 51.
Result probabilities: Karviná 29% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 45%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.48 | Draw 3.82 | Slavia Praha 2.22. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Karviná's last 10 home games and Slavia Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karviná 60% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 29% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Karviná 1.20 / Slavia Praha 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.957 / def 1.091 | Slavia Praha attack 1.190 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Slavia Praha xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does Karviná vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Karviná vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Karviná 1 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is Karviná vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs Slavia Praha part of?
Karviná vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 29% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Karviná and Slavia Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Karviná vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.96x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.19x) against Karviná's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 51 games and Slavia Praha's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
29%
3.48
26%
3.82
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.76
1.56
Slavia Praha xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
16.54
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Karviná and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Karviná and 1.56 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Karviná have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 21W 10D 22L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Slavia Praha's form line: 41W 9D 3L from 53 games, 2.49 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Karviná have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 25 home games (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 15W 7D 3L from their last 25 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.23 scored and 0.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
Karviná (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Karviná vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 21W 10D 22L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 41W 9D 3L in their last 53 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.44 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Karviná or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Karviná and Slavia Praha, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 5-1 Karviná on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
1
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slavia Praha?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Karviná and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Karviná 1-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 52%, Slavia Praha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Karviná) and 44% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 44%; Karviná have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and Slavia Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Karviná's recent matches and 48% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karviná and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Karviná's recent games and 44% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Karviná's recent matches and 68% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Karviná 1-3 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.20 xG and Slavia Praha 1.56 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Slavia Praha attack 1.19 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 29% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 45%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 66%, Slavia Praha 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.