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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Mlada Boleslav.

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Full Analysis

Fortuna Arena plays host to Slavia Praha versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Slavia Praha have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Slavia Praha at Fortuna Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena.

Mlada Boleslav (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mlada Boleslav's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Slavia Praha's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Mlada Boleslav's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Slavia Praha have had the better of this match-up — 8 wins from 9 meetings, with Mlada Boleslav managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Slavia Praha winning.

The historical record gives Slavia Praha a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 42% versus Mlada Boleslav 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 53% | Mlada Boleslav 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.09 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.420 / defence 0.911 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.976 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.219. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Slavia Praha games / 50 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 60% | Draw 22% | Mlada Boleslav 18%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Mlada Boleslav 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 50% | Mlada Boleslav 80% BTTS from recent games.

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