Hradec Králové 2-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at Malsovicka arena in Czech Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hradec Králové at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Hradec Králové have won 3, Bohemians 1905 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Hradec Králové 2–1 Bohemians 1905 — a Hradec Králové win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 38% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 42% | Bohemians 1905 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.19 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.881 / defence 0.854 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.841 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.202. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 56 games and Bohemians 1905's last 56.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 25%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.39 | Draw 3.03 | Bohemians 1905 3.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 30% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.19 / Bohemians 1905 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.881 / def 0.854 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.841 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bohemians 1905 xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové 2 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 42% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.88x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 56 games and Bohemians 1905's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
42%
2.39
33%
3.03
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.05
0.86
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.86 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 24W 14D 22L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 27L across 60 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.43 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 14W 9D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.95 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 16D 27L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.70 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won Bohemians 1905 0-3 Hradec Králové.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 37%, Bohemians 1905 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hradec Králové) and 40% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 40% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 40% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 70% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.19 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.86 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 25%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.43 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.