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Poisson model favours Plzen (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Bohemians 1905.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Plzen welcome Bohemians 1905 to Doosan Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Plzen at Doosan Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Plzen have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Bohemians 1905 have managed just 2 wins.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Plzen winning.

The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Plzen in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 52% versus Bohemians 1905 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Bohemians 1905 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.155 / defence 0.948 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.980 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.103. Data: 55 Plzen games / 55 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Plzen 46% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 25%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 4.00. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 50% | Bohemians 1905 50%.

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