FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FK Jablonec face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Strelnice in Czech Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FK Jablonec stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
FK Jablonec at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Baník Ostrava have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, FK Jablonec have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
FK Jablonec hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 2 for Baník Ostrava and 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended FK Jablonec 1–0 Baník Ostrava — a FK Jablonec win.
The head-to-head data gives FK Jablonec an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 37% versus Baník Ostrava 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Baník Ostrava 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.30 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.862 / defence 0.871 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.811 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.176. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 57 games and Baník Ostrava's last 57.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 22%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.17 | Draw 3.13 | Baník Ostrava 4.52. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FK Jablonec's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 40% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.30 / Baník Ostrava 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.862 / def 0.871 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.811 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Baník Ostrava xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec 4 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 46% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.86) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 57 games and Baník Ostrava's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.13
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.13
0.83
Baník Ostrava xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.83 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 33W 12D 17L from 62 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 23L across 62 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.79 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 17W 8D 5L from their last 30 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 10W 8D 12L across their last 30 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.32 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 33W 12D 17L in their last 62 games (1.79 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 12D 23L in their last 62 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.97 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.27 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 9 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FK Jablonec have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 7, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 September 2026: FK Jablonec 3-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 40%, Baník Ostrava 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FK Jablonec) and 37% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 40% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 37% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 70% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Baník Ostrava 4-1 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.30 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.83 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 22%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Baník Ostrava 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.79 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.