Dukla Praha 0-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dukla Praha vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host Pardubice at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Dukla Praha's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Pardubice have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pardubice are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Dukla Praha: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Pardubice, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Dukla Praha 1–1 Pardubice — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Dukla Praha an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Pardubice in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 46% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 38% | Pardubice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.14 xG and Pardubice 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.747 / defence 1.012 | Pardubice attack 1.071 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.118. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from Dukla Praha's last 56 games and Pardubice's last 56.
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 33% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 36%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.07 | Draw 3.21 | Pardubice 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Pardubice are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dukla Praha 30% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 33% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Dukla Praha 1.14 / Pardubice 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.747 / def 1.012 | Pardubice attack 1.071 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Pardubice xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Dukla Praha vs Pardubice kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Dukla Praha 0 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Pardubice part of?
Dukla Praha vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 33% chance of winning, Pardubice a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dukla Praha and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Dukla Praha vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.75) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dukla Praha's last 56 games and Pardubice's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
33%
3.07
31%
3.21
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.35
1.21
Pardubice xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dukla Praha vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.21 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dukla Praha come into this having played 63 games, going 11W 22D 30L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.90 PPG from 63 outings (14W 15D 34L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dukla Praha on 0.87 PPG, Pardubice on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dukla Praha's home form reads 8W 10D 13L across their last 31 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.68 points per game from their last 31 away games (5W 6D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dukla Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.92 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
Dukla Praha (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dukla Praha
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Dukla Praha vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Dukla Praha and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 11W 22D 30L in their last 63 games (0.87 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 15D 34L in their last 63 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Pardubice away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.10 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Dukla Praha vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Pardubice?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Dukla Praha have won 3, Pardubice have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Dukla Praha 0-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Pardubice?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 52%, Pardubice 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Dukla Praha) and 52% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 29% of games; Pardubice in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dukla Praha and Pardubice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 45% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dukla Praha and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 52% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 64% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Dukla Praha 0-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.14 xG and Pardubice 1.21 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against Pardubice attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 33% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 36%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 38%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.87 PPG, Pardubice 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.