Yunnan Yukun 0-3 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 73% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Yunnan Yukun face Tianjin Teda.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to face Yunnan Yukun in Super League (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.

Current Form

Yunnan Yukun's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Yunnan Yukun's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Tianjin Teda (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Yunnan Yukun's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) — Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Tianjin Teda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Yunnan Yukun edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Yunnan Yukun 2–0 Tianjin Teda — a Yunnan Yukun win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Tianjin Teda 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Tianjin Teda 53%). Note also that Tianjin Teda surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Yunnan Yukun recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.31 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.291 / defence 0.892 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.727 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.139. Yunnan Yukun carry an above-average attack rating of 1.291 — their 2.31 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Tianjin Teda's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Yunnan Yukun's last 35 games and Tianjin Teda's last 35.

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 73% | Draw 17% | Tianjin Teda 10%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.38 | Draw 5.87 | Tianjin Teda 9.74. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (73%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 73% — clear model lean.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Yunnan Yukun's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Yunnan Yukun 70% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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