Yunnan Yukun 4-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 52%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shandong Luneng travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun in Super League (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Yunnan Yukun — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Yunnan Yukun's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shandong Luneng stand at 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shandong Luneng are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Yunnan Yukun's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, Shandong Luneng 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Yunnan Yukun 1–1 Shandong Luneng — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Shandong Luneng trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Shandong Luneng 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Shandong Luneng 77%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Yunnan Yukun surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Shandong Luneng have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.114 / defence 1.009 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.183 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.812 / away 1.189. Data: built from Yunnan Yukun's last 32 games and Shandong Luneng's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 52% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 27%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.93 | Draw 4.66 | Shandong Luneng 3.73. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Yunnan Yukun's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Yunnan Yukun 70% (last 10 home games) | Shandong Luneng 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Yunnan Yukun 32 games, Shandong Luneng 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 52% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.03 / Shandong Luneng 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.114 / def 1.009 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.183 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.812 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Shandong Luneng xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng FAQs
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Yunnan Yukun 4 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 52% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 1.11x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Yunnan Yukun's last 32 games and Shandong Luneng's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
52%
1.93
21%
4.66
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.45
1.42
Shandong Luneng xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
4%
28.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.42 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Yunnan Yukun have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 11W 9D 10L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 15W 8D 7L from 30 games, 1.77 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yunnan Yukun on 1.40 PPG, Shandong Luneng on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Yunnan Yukun have posted 1.87 PPG from their last 15 home games (8W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 5D 5L from their last 15 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.30 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Shandong Luneng in 73%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun (Home) vs Shandong Luneng (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng Form FAQs
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.87 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 10 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Mar 2026, when Yunnan Yukun won Yunnan Yukun 4-0 Shandong Luneng.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Shandong Luneng have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 July 2026: Shandong Luneng 4-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yunnan Yukun at 67%, Shandong Luneng at 87%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Yunnan Yukun and 80% for Shandong Luneng. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 87% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 80% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Yunnan Yukun's recent matches and 93% of Shandong Luneng's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Yunnan Yukun run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Shandong Luneng.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Shandong Luneng 4-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 2.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.42 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shandong Luneng landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.18 / defence 1.01, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 52% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 27%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 53%, Shandong Luneng 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.40 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.