Yunnan Yukun 3-3 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Yunnan Yukun face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Beijing Guoan travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun in Super League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Yunnan Yukun have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Yunnan Yukun) versus 1.50 (Beijing Guoan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Jun 2025, ended Yunnan Yukun 1–2 Beijing Guoan — a Beijing Guoan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Beijing Guoan 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Beijing Guoan 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Yunnan Yukun surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Beijing Guoan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.36 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.086 / defence 1.081 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.964 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.168. Beijing Guoan bring a tight defence (rating 0.745, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Yunnan Yukun's projected output down. Data: built from Yunnan Yukun's last 38 games and Beijing Guoan's last 38.
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 40% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 33%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.49 | Draw 3.78 | Beijing Guoan 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Yunnan Yukun's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Yunnan Yukun 70% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 40% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.36 / Beijing Guoan 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.086 / def 1.081 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.964 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Beijing Guoan xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Yunnan Yukun 3 - 3 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 40% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Yunnan Yukun's last 38 games and Beijing Guoan's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.78
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
2.58
1.22
Beijing Guoan xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.22 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 11W 9D 10L from 30 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 17W 6D 7L across 30 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yunnan Yukun heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 8W 4D 3L from their last 15 home games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 7W 4D 4L across their last 15 away games, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.30 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 63%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.87 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Yunnan Yukun
2
Draws
2
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Beijing Guoan 3-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 67%, Beijing Guoan 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Yunnan Yukun) and 67% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 53% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 67% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Yunnan Yukun's recent matches and 87% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan finished level at 3-3 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.36 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.22 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.09 / defence 1.08 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.96 / defence 0.74, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 40% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 33%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 53%, Beijing Guoan 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.