Wuhan Three Towns 3-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Three Towns face Yunnan Yukun.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun meet at Wuhan Sports Centre in Super League (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 April 2025 at 13:35 UK time.
Current Form
Wuhan Three Towns's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.69 xG and Yunnan Yukun 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.771 / defence 1.305 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.075 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.442. Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.69. Yunnan Yukun's defence rating of 1.353 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output up. Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating of 1.305 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Yunnan Yukun's projected output up. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 35 games and Yunnan Yukun's last 5.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 31% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 44%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 3.19 | Draw 4.12 | Yunnan Yukun 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.69 / 2.02) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, matchday 6 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 31% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.69 / Yunnan Yukun 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.771 / def 1.305 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.075 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Yunnan Yukun xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun?
Wuhan Three Towns 3 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun is a Super League fixture (matchday 6) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 31% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Yunnan Yukun's attack (1.07x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 35 games and Yunnan Yukun's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
31%
3.19
24%
4.12
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.72
2.02
Yunnan Yukun xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.61
Clean Sheet
13%
7.56
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
4%
24.16
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 2.02 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Yunnan Yukun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun, the earliest from April 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Yunnan Yukun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Yunnan Yukun 2-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Yunnan Yukun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Yunnan Yukun 3-1 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.69 xG and Yunnan Yukun 2.02 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yunnan Yukun landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.77 / defence 1.30 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.07 / defence 1.35, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 31% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 44%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Wuhan Three Towns win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.