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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Chengdu Better City host Yunnan Yukun at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 16 April 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.22 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.965 / defence 0.805 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.941 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.529. Yunnan Yukun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Chengdu Better City games / 6 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 18%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Yunnan Yukun 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

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