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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to face Dalian Zhixing in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Tianjin Teda (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.59 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.935 / defence 0.942 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.092 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.469. Data: 5 Dalian Zhixing games / 35 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 38% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 34%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Tianjin Teda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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