Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium plays host to Yunnan Yukun versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.16 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.705 / defence 1.076 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.750 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.492. Yunnan Yukun's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Yunnan Yukun games / 34 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 32% | Draw 34% | Qingdao Jonoon 34%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Qingdao Jonoon 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 32% | Draw 34% | Qingdao Jonoon 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.16 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.705 / def 1.076 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.750 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Qingdao Jonoon xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Yunnan Yukun 1 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 32% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 2.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 0.70x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.75x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
32%
3.12
34%
2.97
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
2.36
1.20
Qingdao Jonoon xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.20 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Qingdao Jonoon won 5-1 on 9 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yunnan Yukun have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
0
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 4-2 Yunnan Yukun.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.16 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.20 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.75 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 32% | Draw 34% | Qingdao Jonoon 34%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Yunnan Yukun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.