Meizhou Kejia 1-3 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre to take on Meizhou Kejia. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 April 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Meizhou Kejia 1.00 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Meizhou Kejia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Changchun Yatai in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Meizhou Kejia have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Changchun Yatai have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Meizhou Kejia and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 62% and Changchun Yatai 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 60% | Changchun Yatai 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 2.33 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.278 / defence 1.176 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.709 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.460. Meizhou Kejia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Meizhou Kejia games / 35 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 61% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 17%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Changchun Yatai 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Meizhou Kejia (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Changchun Yatai 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 61% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Meizhou Kejia 2.33 / Changchun Yatai 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.278 / def 1.176 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.709 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Changchun Yatai xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 3 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 61% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai?
Record (6 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 5W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.28) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.55
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.54
1.22
Changchun Yatai xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
10%
10.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
2%
59.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.22 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 16D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (18W 17D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Meizhou Kejia on 1.02 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 11W 8D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (6W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.50 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Changchun Yatai in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.37 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Changchun Yatai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 5, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 63%, Changchun Yatai 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Meizhou Kejia) and 57% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 30% of games; Changchun Yatai in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 57% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 57% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Meizhou Kejia 1-3 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 2.33 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.22 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.28 / defence 1.18 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.71 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 61% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 17%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Changchun Yatai win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Changchun Yatai 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.02 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.