Wuhan Three Towns 4-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Three Towns face Dalian Zhixing.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Zhixing make the trip to Wuhan Sports Centre to face Wuhan Three Towns in Super League (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 11:35 UK time.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Wuhan Three Towns's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Wuhan Three Towns are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Zhixing have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dalian Zhixing away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Dalian Zhixing's last 10 away games) — Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Dalian Zhixing in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Wuhan Three Towns 0–0 Dalian Zhixing — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 60% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 63% | Dalian Zhixing 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.80 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.756 / defence 1.188 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.157 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.843 / away 1.365. Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.80. Dalian Zhixing's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output up. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 31 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 37% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 40%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.72 | Draw 4.30 | Dalian Zhixing 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Dalian Zhixing's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 70% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Zhixing 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Wuhan Three Towns 31 games, Dalian Zhixing 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 11:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 37% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.80 / Dalian Zhixing 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.756 / def 1.188 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.157 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.843 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Dalian Zhixing xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:35 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing?
Wuhan Three Towns 4 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 37% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (1.16x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 31 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
37%
2.72
23%
4.30
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.68
1.88
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
6%
17.74
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.88 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 7D 17L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Dalian Zhixing sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.20 for Dalian Zhixing. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 4W 5D 6L across their last 15 home games, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Zhixing have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 15 away games (1W 7D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Dalian Zhixing (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.13 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 4 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 4-1 Dalian Zhixing on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wuhan Three Towns
2
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 July 2026: Dalian Zhixing 3-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 86% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 67%, Dalian Zhixing 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 47% (Dalian Zhixing). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 60% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 47% of Dalian Zhixing's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 93% of Dalian Zhixing's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Dalian Zhixing 4-1 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.80 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.88 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Zhixing landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.76 / defence 1.19 against Dalian Zhixing attack 1.16 / defence 1.29, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 37% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 40%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Wuhan Three Towns win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 63%, Dalian Zhixing 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 0.83 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.