Tianjin Teda 2-3 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 41%, yet in-form Shanghai Shenhua provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua meet at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shanghai Shenhua arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua edge it 3 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Tianjin Teda 1–3 Shanghai Shenhua — a Shanghai Shenhua win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Shanghai Shenhua 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Shanghai Shenhua 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tianjin Teda surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Shanghai Shenhua have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 70% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.26 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.822 / defence 0.891 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.046 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.900 / away 1.147. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 33 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 33.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 31%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.46 | Draw 3.57 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shanghai Shenhua (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 30% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, matchday 4 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Tianjin Teda 1.26 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.822 / def 0.891 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.046 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.900 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Shanghai Shenhua xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Super League fixture (matchday 4) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 41% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.82) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.05x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 33 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.57
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.33
1.07
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.07 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 24W 14D 22L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 43W 12D 5L across 60 games — 2.35 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 15W 9D 6L from their last 30 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 21W 5D 4L across their last 30 away games, a 2.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 2.33 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Shanghai Shenhua (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 43W 12D 5L in their last 60 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.80 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 18 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Tianjin Teda on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 July 2026: Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 43%, Shanghai Shenhua 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 53% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 53% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 70% of Shanghai Shenhua's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shanghai Shenhua defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Tianjin Teda 2-3 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.26 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.07 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.05 / defence 0.81, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 31%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Shanghai Shenhua 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.