Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sichuan Jiuniu face Tianjin Teda.

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Match Analysis

Sichuan Jiuniu host Tianjin Teda at Longquanyi Stadium in Super League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Sichuan Jiuniu — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Sichuan Jiuniu) versus 1.40 (Tianjin Teda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 60% of Tianjin Teda's (from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Tianjin Teda 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Sichuan Jiuniu 0–1 Tianjin Teda — a Tianjin Teda win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Tianjin Teda trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% versus Tianjin Teda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Tianjin Teda 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.78 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.988 / defence 1.024 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.952 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.832 / away 1.272. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 31 games and Tianjin Teda's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 49% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 25%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.05 | Draw 3.88 | Tianjin Teda 3.93. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Sichuan Jiuniu 31 games, Tianjin Teda 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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