Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shanghai Shenhua face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua welcome SHANGHAI SIPG to Shanghai Stadium in Super League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Shanghai Shenhua) versus 2.20 (SHANGHAI SIPG). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 90% of SHANGHAI SIPG's (from Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 home games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, SHANGHAI SIPG 2, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Shanghai Shenhua 1–2 SHANGHAI SIPG — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shanghai Shenhua 58% and SHANGHAI SIPG 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shanghai Shenhua 65% | SHANGHAI SIPG 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.21 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.264 / defence 1.180 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.032 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.932 / away 1.157. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack rating of 1.264 — their 2.21 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 34 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 34.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 56% | Draw 20% | SHANGHAI SIPG 24%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.79 | Draw 4.94 | SHANGHAI SIPG 4.16. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 home games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shanghai Shenhua 60% (last 10 home games) | SHANGHAI SIPG 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, matchday 5 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 56% | Draw 20% | SHANGHAI SIPG 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.21 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.264 / def 1.180 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.032 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.932 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.41
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG FAQs
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Super League fixture (matchday 5) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 56% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 34 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
56%
1.79
20%
4.94
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.62
1.41
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
11%
9.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
3%
38.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.41 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 60 games, going 43W 12D 5L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.40 PPG from 60 outings (45W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 2.35 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG on 2.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 22W 7D 1L across their last 30 home games, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.33 points per game from their last 30 away games (22W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.80 scored and 1.23 conceded. SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking output running into Shanghai Shenhua's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 70%.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua (Home) vs SHANGHAI SIPG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG Form FAQs
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 43W 12D 5L in their last 60 games (2.35 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 45W 9D 6L in their last 60 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.43 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won Shanghai Shenhua 0-5 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shanghai Shenhua
4
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shanghai Shenhua at 67%, SHANGHAI SIPG at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Shanghai Shenhua and 77% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 63% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and SHANGHAI SIPG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 90% of SHANGHAI SIPG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.21 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shanghai Shenhua fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.26 / defence 1.18 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 56% | Draw 20% | SHANGHAI SIPG 24%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 65%, SHANGHAI SIPG 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 2.35 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 2.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.