Shandong Luneng 2-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center to face Shandong Luneng in Super League (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 07:30 UK time.
Current Form
Shandong Luneng's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form favours the hosts. Shandong Luneng's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Beijing Guoan's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Shandong Luneng edge it 3 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Shandong Luneng 6–0 Beijing Guoan — a Shandong Luneng win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shandong Luneng 62% and Beijing Guoan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shandong Luneng 67% | Beijing Guoan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.72 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.154 / defence 0.828 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.138 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.893 / away 1.342. Beijing Guoan bring a tight defence (rating 0.789, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Shandong Luneng's projected output down. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 31 games and Beijing Guoan's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 27%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.12 | Draw 3.87 | Beijing Guoan 3.70. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 80% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Shandong Luneng 31 games, Beijing Guoan 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Shandong Luneng 1.72 / Beijing Guoan 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.154 / def 0.828 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.138 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.893 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Beijing Guoan xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 47% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.15x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.14x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 31 games and Beijing Guoan's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.87
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.99
1.26
Beijing Guoan xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
5%
20.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.26 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 28W 17D 15L from 60 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 33W 14D 13L across 60 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.88 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 18W 7D 5L from their last 30 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 13W 9D 8L across their last 30 away games, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.23 scored and 1.35 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 65%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 28W 17D 15L in their last 60 games (1.68 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.03 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 4 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 6-0 Beijing Guoan on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 July 2026: Beijing Guoan 2-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 57%, Beijing Guoan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Shandong Luneng and 60% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Shandong Luneng's games and 60% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 60% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 77% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Beijing Guoan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.72 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.26 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.15 / defence 0.83 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.79, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 27%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 67%, Beijing Guoan 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.68 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.