Qingdao Jonoon 1-4 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Hangzhou Greentown at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 3). Kick-off is Friday 20 March 2026 at 11:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 1.10 PPG versus Hangzhou Greentown's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Qingdao Jonoon 2–2 Hangzhou Greentown — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Hangzhou Greentown 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 42% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Qingdao Jonoon surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Hangzhou Greentown have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.000 / defence 1.043 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.079 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.813 / away 1.136. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 32 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.98 | Draw 4.38 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.75. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 50% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Qingdao Jonoon 32 games, Hangzhou Greentown 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 11:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.83 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.000 / def 1.043 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.079 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.813 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Hangzhou Greentown xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:35 UK time on Friday 20 March 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 4 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 50% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 32 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
50%
1.98
23%
4.38
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.11
1.28
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.28 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 15D 32L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (21W 17D 22L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 10W 9D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.30 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.92 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 games (0.90 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.30 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 14 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Jun 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won Qingdao Jonoon 0-3 Hangzhou Greentown.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
3
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 July 2026: Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 70% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games; Hangzhou Greentown in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 53% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-4 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 42%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.