Henan Jianye 0-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Henan Jianye face Shandong Luneng.

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Full Analysis

Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Shandong Luneng in Super League (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time.

Current Form

Henan Jianye's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Shandong Luneng have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Henan Jianye's games and 80% of Shandong Luneng's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Henan Jianye, 3 for Shandong Luneng and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Jun 2025, ended Henan Jianye 2–2 Shandong Luneng — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and Shandong Luneng 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Shandong Luneng 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Henan Jianye surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Shandong Luneng have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.01 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.901 / defence 0.965 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.015 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.932 / away 1.157. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 34 games and Shandong Luneng's last 34.

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 58% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 21%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.73 | Draw 4.68 | Shandong Luneng 4.77. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 70% (last 10 home games) | Shandong Luneng 80% (last 10 away games).

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