Dalian Zhixing 1-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dalian Zhixing face Chongqing Tongliang Long.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Chongqing Tongliang Long travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing in Super League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.24 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.990 / defence 0.968 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.905 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.155. Chongqing Tongliang Long bring a tight defence (rating 0.767, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dalian Zhixing's projected output down. Data: built from Dalian Zhixing's last 38 games and Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 8.
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 41% | Draw 28% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 30%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.41 | Draw 3.51 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 41% | Draw 28% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.24 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.990 / def 0.968 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.905 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long FAQs
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Friday 1 May 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Dalian Zhixing 1 - 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 41% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Zhixing's last 38 games and Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.51
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.25
1.01
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.01 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Dalian Zhixing (Home) vs Chongqing Tongliang Long (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2026. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dalian Zhixing
0
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.24 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.01 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chongqing Tongliang Long landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.91 / defence 0.77, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 41% | Draw 28% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 30%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.