Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Changchun Yatai (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dalian Aerbin face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dalian Aerbin welcome Changchun Yatai to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 16 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Aerbin stand at 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Dalian Aerbin have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Dalian Aerbin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Changchun Yatai have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Changchun Yatai's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Dalian Aerbin's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 60% of Changchun Yatai's (from Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Changchun Yatai have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Dalian Aerbin.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Dalian Aerbin 2–3 Changchun Yatai — a Changchun Yatai win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Changchun Yatai have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Changchun Yatai trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 60% versus Changchun Yatai 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 52% | Changchun Yatai 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.47 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.816 / defence 0.989 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.284 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.226. Changchun Yatai's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Changchun Yatai have an above-average attack rating of 1.284, which lifts their away xG to 1.56. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 50 games and Changchun Yatai's last 50.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 35% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 38%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.88 | Draw 3.72 | Changchun Yatai 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 80% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, matchday 17 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 35% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.47 / Changchun Yatai 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.816 / def 0.989 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.284 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Changchun Yatai xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai is a Super League fixture (matchday 17) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 35% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.82x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 50 games and Changchun Yatai's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.72
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
3.03
1.56
Changchun Yatai xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
7%
13.69
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.56 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 14W 17D 19L from 50 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 18L across 50 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Aerbin on 1.18 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 8W 10D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 9W 7D 9L across their last 25 away games, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.58 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Changchun Yatai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 14W 17D 19L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 14D 18L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.36 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 16 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
3
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 July 2023: Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dalian Aerbin at 72%, Changchun Yatai at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dalian Aerbin) and 68% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 60% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Dalian Aerbin's matches and 68% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 76% of Changchun Yatai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dalian Aerbin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai finished level at 0-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.47 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Changchun Yatai landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.28 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 35% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 38%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 52%, Changchun Yatai 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.18 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.