Chengdu Better City 4-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Dalian Aerbin travel to Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Chengdu Better City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 July 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have recorded 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Dalian Aerbin 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 47% versus Dalian Aerbin 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 47% | Dalian Aerbin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.39 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.023 / defence 0.850 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.756 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.214. Data: 51 Chengdu Better City games / 51 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 49% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 19%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Dalian Aerbin 5.26. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 50% | Dalian Aerbin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 49% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.39 / Dalian Aerbin 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.023 / def 0.850 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.756 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Dalian Aerbin xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Chengdu Better City 4 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 49% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (5 meetings): Chengdu Better City 2W | Draws 2 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Dalian Aerbin's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
49%
2.04
32%
3.11
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.17
0.78
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
5%
21.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.78 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 26W 17D 8L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 14W 18D 19L from 51 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.08 PPG from 25 outings (14W 10D 1L).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 7D 12L from 25 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.25 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 26W 17D 8L in their last 51 games (1.86 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 14W 18D 19L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.08 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Dec 2022, when Chengdu Better City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2023, when Chengdu Better City 4-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 52%, Dalian Aerbin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Chengdu Better City) and 56% (Dalian Aerbin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 48% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 56% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Dalian Aerbin 4-1 at Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.39 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.78 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.76 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 49% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 19%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 47%, Dalian Aerbin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.