Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Tianjin Teda at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 5W 1D 4L at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 1.50 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 53% versus Tianjin Teda 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 51% | Tianjin Teda 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.03 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.011 / defence 0.926 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.962 / defence 0.691. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.226. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.691 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Hangzhou Greentown games / 49 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 32% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 35%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Tianjin Teda 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 30% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 32% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.03 / Tianjin Teda 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.011 / def 0.926 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.962 / def 0.691 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Tianjin Teda xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 32% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
Record (2 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.01x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
32%
3.14
33%
3.02
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.12
1.09
Tianjin Teda xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
12%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.09 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 22W 15D 12L from 49 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 12L across 49 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.65 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 13W 4D 6L from 23 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 10W 7D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 22W 15D 12L in their last 49 games (1.65 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 17D 12L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.87 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 30%, Tianjin Teda 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 35% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 35%; Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 26% of games; Tianjin Teda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 48% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 35% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.03 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.09 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.96 / defence 0.69, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 32% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 35%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 51%, Tianjin Teda 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.65 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.