Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nantong Zhiyun face Dalian Aerbin.

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Match Analysis

Nantong Zhiyun host Dalian Aerbin at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 2W 2D 3L from their last 7 home games — 1.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Nantong Zhiyun are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Aerbin stand at 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Dalian Aerbin away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nantong Zhiyun at 0.60 PPG versus Dalian Aerbin's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Nantong Zhiyun, 1 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Nantong Zhiyun 1–2 Dalian Aerbin — a Dalian Aerbin win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Nantong Zhiyun in-play tendencies (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 53% versus Dalian Aerbin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 33% | Dalian Aerbin 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.90 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.678 / defence 1.233 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.745 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.247. Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Dalian Aerbin's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Nantong Zhiyun's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Data: built from Nantong Zhiyun's last 15 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 49.

Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 27% | Draw 33% | Dalian Aerbin 40%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.72 | Draw 2.99 | Dalian Aerbin 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nantong Zhiyun 43% (last 7 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 30% (last 10 away games).

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