Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-4 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shenzhen Ruby FC face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Shenzhen Ruby FC welcome SHANGHAI SIPG to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.30 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Shenzhen Ruby FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SHANGHAI SIPG have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Shenzhen Ruby FC.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 2–3 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 47% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 63% | SHANGHAI SIPG 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.65 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.823 / defence 1.389 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.213 / defence 0.538. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.226. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.538 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 50 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 10% | Draw 21% | SHANGHAI SIPG 69%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 10.00 | Draw 4.76 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.45. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 10% | Draw 21% | SHANGHAI SIPG 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 43% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.65 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.823 / def 1.389 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.213 / def 0.538 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
2.07
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
43%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 10% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 69% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (5 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 5W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.82) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (0.54), the model arrives at 0.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
10%
10.53
21%
4.71
69%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
0 – 3
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.72
2.07
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
10.53
10%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.44
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
13%
7.89
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
1%
83.09
36%
2.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 13.6 | 14.1 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 2.07 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 12W 5D 32L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 31W 9D 9L from 49 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 1.24 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 0.92 PPG from 25 outings (7W 2D 16L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 15W 5D 5L from 25 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.69 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 5D 32L in their last 49 games (0.84 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 31W 9D 9L in their last 49 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.92 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 48%, SHANGHAI SIPG 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 48% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 48%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 44% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 48% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-4 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.65 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.07 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 2.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.39 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.21 / defence 0.54, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 10% | Draw 21% | SHANGHAI SIPG 69%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 63%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.