Changchun Yatai 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Changchun Yatai face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Changchun Yatai's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.70 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Changchun Yatai's games and 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Changchun Yatai edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 2–0 Hangzhou Greentown — a Changchun Yatai win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Hangzhou Greentown 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 56% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.194 / defence 1.222 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.135 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.247. Changchun Yatai's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 49 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 48.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 36%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.51 | Draw 4.12 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 70% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 16 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.83 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.194 / def 1.222 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.135 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Hangzhou Greentown xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Wednesday 12 July 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 16) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 40% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.19x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.14x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 49 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.12
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.56
1.73
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
7%
14.15
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.73 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 17W 13D 18L from 48 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 12L across 48 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.67 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 8W 6D 9L from their last 23 home games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 9W 10D 4L across their last 23 away games, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.71 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 22W 14D 12L in their last 48 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.30 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 20 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 4D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
5
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2025: Changchun Yatai 3-3 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 52%, Hangzhou Greentown 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Changchun Yatai) and 56% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Changchun Yatai's games and 74% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 56% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 78% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.73 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.19 / defence 1.22 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.14 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 36%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 56%, Hangzhou Greentown 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.33 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.