Changchun Yatai 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun's People Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.70 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Changchun Yatai register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Hangzhou Greentown in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Hangzhou Greentown 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 56% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.194 / defence 1.222 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.135 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.247. Data: 49 Changchun Yatai games / 48 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 36%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.83 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.194 / def 1.222 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.135 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Hangzhou Greentown xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 12 July 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 40% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (3 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.19x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.14x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.12
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.56
1.73
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
7%
14.15
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.73 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 17W 13D 18L from 48 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 12L across 48 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.67 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 9W 10D 4L across 23 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.71 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 22W 14D 12L in their last 48 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.30 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
5
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 3-3 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 52%, Hangzhou Greentown 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Changchun Yatai) and 56% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Changchun Yatai's games and 74% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 56% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.73 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.19 / defence 1.22 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.14 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 36%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 56%, Hangzhou Greentown 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.33 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.