Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Chengdu Better City travel to Cangzhou Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Monday 17 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chengdu Better City — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chengdu Better City are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Chengdu Better City 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2023, ended Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1–2 Chengdu Better City — a Chengdu Better City win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58% versus Chengdu Better City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46% | Chengdu Better City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.07 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.849 / defence 1.017 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.133 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.216. Data: built from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 50 games and Chengdu Better City's last 50.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 42%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.79 | Draw 3.19 | Chengdu Better City 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 17 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 17 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.07 / Chengdu Better City 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.849 / def 1.017 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.133 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Chengdu Better City xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Monday 17 July 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 17) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 26% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.85x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 50 games and Chengdu Better City's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
26%
3.79
31%
3.19
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.47
1.40
Chengdu Better City xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
6%
15.39
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.40 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 15W 17D 18L from 50 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 26W 17D 7L across 50 games — 1.90 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 5W 9D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 12W 7D 5L across their last 24 away games, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.48 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 15W 17D 18L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 26W 17D 7L in their last 50 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.00 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 30 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 June 2024: Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Chengdu Better City 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 33% for Chengdu Better City.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 50%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 38% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 33% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 71% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shijiazhuang Y. J. defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Chengdu Better City 2-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.07 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.40 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 42%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shijiazhuang Y. J. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%, Chengdu Better City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.