Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chongqing Tongliang Long face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long host Wuhan Three Towns at Tongliang Long Stadium in Super League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Three Towns have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.12 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.893 / defence 1.214 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.047 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.955 / away 1.158. Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chongqing Tongliang Long's projected output up. Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output up. Data: built from Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 4 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 34.
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 52% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 27%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.91 | Draw 4.78 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.75. Chongqing Tongliang Long hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.12 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 5 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 52% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.12 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.893 / def 1.214 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.047 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.955 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 5) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 52% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chongqing Tongliang Long's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Three Towns's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 4 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
52%
1.91
21%
4.78
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
3.59
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
3%
31.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.47 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Chongqing Tongliang Long (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2026. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
0
Draws
1
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Chongqing Tongliang Long edge out Wuhan Three Towns 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 at Tongliang Long Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.12 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.05 / defence 1.21, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 52% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 27%, with Chongqing Tongliang Long to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.