Beijing Guoan 1-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beijing Guoan face Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City meet at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Current Form
Beijing Guoan's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Beijing Guoan have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chengdu Better City (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Chengdu Better City's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.70 for Chengdu Better City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Beijing Guoan's games and 80% of Chengdu Better City's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Beijing Guoan edge it 3 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Jul 2025, ended Beijing Guoan 0–2 Chengdu Better City — a Chengdu Better City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 65% and Chengdu Better City 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 67% | Chengdu Better City 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.10 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.030 / defence 1.024 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.296 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.855 / away 1.117. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack rating of 1.296, which lifts their away xG to 1.48. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 34 games and Chengdu Better City's last 34.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 52% | Draw 21% | Chengdu Better City 27%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.93 | Draw 4.76 | Chengdu Better City 3.70. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 80% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 5 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 52% | Draw 21% | Chengdu Better City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Beijing Guoan 2.10 / Chengdu Better City 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.030 / def 1.024 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.296 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.855 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Chengdu Better City xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 5) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 52% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Chengdu Better City's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.30x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 34 games and Chengdu Better City's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
52%
1.93
21%
4.76
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.59
1.48
Chengdu Better City xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
12%
8.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
3%
30.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.48 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 14D 13L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 1.98 PPG from 60 outings (35W 14D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.98 for Chengdu Better City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 20W 5D 5L across their last 30 home games, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.70 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 2.08 scored and 0.98 conceded. Beijing Guoan's scoring rate against Chengdu Better City's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 35W 14D 11L in their last 60 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.17 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
3
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Chengdu Better City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Chengdu Better City 2-2 Beijing Guoan.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Beijing Guoan, 67% for Chengdu Better City — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Beijing Guoan and 60% for Chengdu Better City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Beijing Guoan's games and 67% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 60% of Chengdu Better City's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 77% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chengdu Better City defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Beijing Guoan 1-2 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.10 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.48 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.30 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 52% | Draw 21% | Chengdu Better City 27%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Chengdu Better City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 67%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.88 PPG, Chengdu Better City 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.