Atletico-MG 1-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico-MG at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc meet at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 22 June 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico-MG 1.13 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico-MG attack 0.953 / defence 1.191 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.867 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 0.845 / away 0.986. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Atletico-MG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Atletico-MG games / 4 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 32%. Fair-value odds: Atletico-MG 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Chapecoense-sc 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico-MG at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Jun 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Atletico-MG 1.13 / Chapecoense-sc 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico-MG attack 0.953 / def 1.191 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.867 / def 1.402 | league avg home 0.845 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Atletico-MG xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Chapecoense-sc xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 22 June 2021 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico-MG 1 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Atletico-MG a 38% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atletico-MG's attack at 0.95x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.87x) against Atletico-MG's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.39
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
2.14
1.02
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.02 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico-MG won 0-4 on 2 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Atletico-MG
2
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, Atletico-MG have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 0-4 Atletico-MG.
Who has won more matches between Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico-MG home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 5, as Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.13 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.02 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.87 / defence 1.40, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 32%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.