Palmeiras 2-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sport Recife make the trip to Allianz Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palmeiras have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sport Recife (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Palmeiras against 1.20 for Sport Recife. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palmeiras lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Palmeiras winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sport Recife half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 63% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 56% versus Sport Recife 22%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palmeiras 56% | Sport Recife 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.23 xG and Sport Recife 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.158 / defence 1.484 | Sport Recife attack 0.640 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.016. Data: 27 Palmeiras games / 27 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 40% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 27%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Sport Recife 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 60% | Sport Recife 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Oct 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 40% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Palmeiras 1.23 / Sport Recife 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.158 / def 1.484 | Sport Recife attack 0.640 / def 1.134 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Sport Recife xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Sport Recife kick off?
Palmeiras vs Sport Recife kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Sport Recife?
Palmeiras 2 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is Palmeiras vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Sport Recife part of?
Palmeiras vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 40% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Palmeiras and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Sport Recife?
Record (1 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 0 | Sport Recife 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Sport Recife in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Sport Recife (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.16x the league average against Sport Recife's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sport Recife's attack (0.64x) against Palmeiras's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
40%
2.49
33%
3.06
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.19
0.96
Sport Recife xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.96 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palmeiras come into this having played 27 games, going 14W 4D 9L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sport Recife sit at 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (6W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Palmeiras's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Sport Recife have taken 1.00 points per game from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.52 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife in 22%.
Defensively: Sport Recife in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 14W 4D 9L in their last 27 games (1.70 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Sport Recife away?
Palmeiras's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 1.77 PPG; Sport Recife away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Palmeiras
0
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 4, Sport Recife have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Palmeiras 3-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Sport Recife?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 69%, Sport Recife 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Palmeiras) and 31% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Sport Recife in 31%; Sport Recife in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 31% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Palmeiras's recent games and 31% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 31% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Sport Recife 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Sport Recife 2-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.23 xG and Sport Recife 0.96 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.16 / defence 1.48 against Sport Recife attack 0.64 / defence 1.13, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 40% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 27%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 56%, Sport Recife 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sport Recife's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.