Ceara 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ceara take on Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ceara and Palmeiras meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ceara's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ceara — key trading statistics (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 52% versus Palmeiras 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ceara 36% | Palmeiras 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 0.94 xG and Palmeiras 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.947 / defence 0.906 | Palmeiras attack 0.879 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 0.912 / away 1.032. Data: 25 Ceara games / 26 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 35% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 28%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Palmeiras 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 40% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 35% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Ceara 0.94 / Palmeiras 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.947 / def 0.906 | Palmeiras attack 0.879 / def 1.082 | league avg home 0.912 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Palmeiras xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Palmeiras kick off?
Ceara vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 20 October 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Ceara 1 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Ceara vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Palmeiras part of?
Ceara vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 35% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ceara and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Palmeiras in?
Ceara (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ceara's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (0.88x) against Ceara's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
37%
2.71
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.76
0.82
Palmeiras xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 14.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Ceara and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Ceara and 0.82 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ceara come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 13D 6L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (13W 4D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Ceara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ceara's home form reads 5W 6D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ceara are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.52 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Palmeiras in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 6W 13D 6L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 13W 4D 8L in their last 25 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Palmeiras away?
Ceara's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.91 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Ceara or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Palmeiras have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ceara have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ceara
0
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Palmeiras?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, Palmeiras have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Ceara 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ceara see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 46%, Palmeiras 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Ceara) and 54% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Palmeiras in 54%; Ceara have failed to score in 27% of games; Palmeiras in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ceara's recent matches and 36% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Ceara's recent games and 54% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat Ceara 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Ceara 1-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 0.94 xG and Palmeiras 0.82 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Palmeiras attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 35% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 36%, Palmeiras 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Ceara (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.