Juventude 0-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Ceara travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021, 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juventude — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventude have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juventude at 0.70 PPG versus Ceara's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Juventude, 1 for Ceara and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with Ceara winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Juventude in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Ceara in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 58% versus Ceara 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 38% | Ceara 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.32 xG and Ceara 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.007 / defence 1.153 | Ceara attack 0.685 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.037. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Juventude games / 26 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 47% | Draw 32% | Ceara 21%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Ceara 4.76. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 60% | Ceara 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 47% | Draw 32% | Ceara 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Juventude 1.32 / Ceara 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.007 / def 1.153 | Ceara attack 0.685 / def 1.444 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Juventude (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Ceara xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Ceara kick off?
Juventude vs Ceara kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Ceara?
Juventude 0 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Juventude vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Ceara part of?
Juventude vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 47% chance of winning, Ceara a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Juventude and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Ceara?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 0 | Ceara 1W.
What form are Juventude and Ceara in?
Juventude (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Ceara (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juventude's attack rating (1.01) and Ceara's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
47%
2.15
32%
3.10
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.14
0.82
Ceara xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Juventude and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Juventude and 0.82 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 6W 9D 11L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ceara's form line: 6W 13D 7L from 26 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.04 PPG, Ceara on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ceara have gone 0W 7D 5L from 12 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 0.96 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Ceara in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 6W 9D 11L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Ceara have gone 6W 13D 7L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Ceara away?
Juventude's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.58 PPG; Ceara away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Juventude or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Ceara in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and Ceara runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 August 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventude have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Ceara won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Juventude
1
Draws
2
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Ceara have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Ceara 0-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Ceara?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 50%, Ceara 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Juventude and 33% for Ceara.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ceara in 33%; Ceara in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juventude's recent matches and 50% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Juventude's recent games and 33% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Ceara tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ceara in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juventude's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 28, as Juventude and Ceara drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.32 xG and Ceara 0.82 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ceara landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.01 / defence 1.15 against Ceara attack 0.69 / defence 1.44, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 47% | Draw 32% | Ceara 21%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 38%, Ceara 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Ceara's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.04 PPG, Ceara 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.