Atletico Goianiense 2-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Atletico Goianiense take on Gremio.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Antônio Accioly plays host to Atletico Goianiense versus Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 October 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Goianiense have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Goianiense at Estádio Antônio Accioly this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 1W, Gremio 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Atletico Goianiense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Atletico Goianiense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 44% versus Gremio 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Goianiense 32% | Gremio 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.93 xG and Gremio 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.734 / defence 1.100 | Gremio attack 0.674 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 0.928 / away 1.021. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Atletico Goianiense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Atletico Goianiense games / 25 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 36% | Draw 38% | Gremio 26%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Gremio 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Gremio's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Goianiense 50% | Gremio 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Oct 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 36% | Draw 38% | Gremio 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 34% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.93 / Gremio 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.734 / def 1.100 | Gremio attack 0.674 / def 1.362 | league avg home 0.928 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Gremio xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio?
Atletico Goianiense 2 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 36% chance of winning, Gremio a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Gremio?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 1W | Draws 0 | Gremio 0W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Gremio in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atletico Goianiense's attack rating (0.73) and Gremio's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.67x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.79
38%
2.63
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
1.69
0.76
Gremio xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 14.0 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.76 for Gremio, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Atletico Goianiense have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 7W 10D 8L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio's form line: 7W 5D 13L from 25 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Atletico Goianiense against 1.04 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atletico Goianiense have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (2W 7D 3L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 9L from 12 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.92 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Gremio in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Gremio have gone 7W 5D 13L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Gremio away?
Atletico Goianiense's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.08 PPG; Gremio away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Gremio in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Goianiense have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Gremio?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 2, Gremio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2024, when Gremio 3-1 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Gremio?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Goianiense tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 42% (Atletico Goianiense) and 25% (Gremio) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Atletico Goianiense and 25% for Gremio.
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 50% of games; Gremio in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 25% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 25% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Gremio tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Gremio in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Goianiense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense beat Gremio 2-0 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.93 xG and Gremio 0.76 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atletico Goianiense beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Gremio attack 0.67 / defence 1.36, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 36% | Draw 38% | Gremio 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Atletico Goianiense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 32%, Gremio 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gremio's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Goianiense 1.24 PPG, Gremio 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Goianiense win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.