Fluminense 3-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 28 as Fluminense welcome Flamengo to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season.
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Fluminense) versus 1.90 (Flamengo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 50% versus Flamengo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 33% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.73 xG and Flamengo 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.854 / defence 1.090 | Flamengo attack 1.425 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 0.895 / away 1.038. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.425 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Fluminense games / 24 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 15% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 57%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | Flamengo 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 50% | Flamengo 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 15% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Fluminense 0.73 / Flamengo 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.854 / def 1.090 | Flamengo attack 1.425 / def 0.952 | league avg home 0.895 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Flamengo xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Flamengo kick off?
Fluminense vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Fluminense 3 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Fluminense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Flamengo part of?
Fluminense vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 15% chance of winning, Flamengo a 57% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fluminense and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Flamengo in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fluminense's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
15%
6.72
28%
3.53
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.34
1.61
Flamengo xG
6.72
15%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
3%
33.72
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.61 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 8W 8D 8L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 14W 4D 6L from 24 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fluminense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 6W 3D 2L from 11 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.92 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 14W 4D 6L in their last 24 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.27 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Flamengo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
2
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Flamengo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 54%, Flamengo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Fluminense) and 54% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 36%; Fluminense have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Fluminense's recent matches and 54% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Fluminense's recent games and 54% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Flamengo tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Flamengo 3-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.73 xG and Flamengo 1.61 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Flamengo attack 1.43 / defence 0.95, drawn from 26/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 15% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 57%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 33%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Fluminense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.