RB Bragantino 3-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 34 as RB Bragantino welcome Sport Recife to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Bragantino — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sport Recife have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sport Recife away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (RB Bragantino) versus 1.10 (Sport Recife). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for RB Bragantino, 0 for Sport Recife and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 68% versus Sport Recife 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (RB Bragantino 54% | Sport Recife 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.16 xG and Sport Recife 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.035 / defence 1.187 | Sport Recife attack 0.647 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 0.941 / away 1.011. Data: 28 RB Bragantino games / 28 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 43% | Draw 35% | Sport Recife 22%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | Sport Recife 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 70% | Sport Recife 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 43% | Draw 35% | Sport Recife 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG RB Bragantino 1.16 / Sport Recife 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.035 / def 1.187 | Sport Recife attack 0.647 / def 1.191 | league avg home 0.941 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Sport Recife xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife?
RB Bragantino 3 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife part of?
RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 43% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both RB Bragantino and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Sport Recife?
Record (1 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 1 | Sport Recife 0W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Sport Recife in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Sport Recife (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Sport Recife's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
43%
2.35
35%
2.86
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
1.94
0.78
Sport Recife xG
2.35
43%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
7%
14.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.78 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Bragantino come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 13D 4L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Sport Recife sit at 0.96 PPG from 28 outings (6W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
RB Bragantino carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RB Bragantino's home form reads 4W 8D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Sport Recife have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.54 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Sport Recife in 25%.
Defensively: Sport Recife in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Sport Recife
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 11W 13D 4L in their last 28 games (1.64 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 6W 9D 13L in their last 28 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Sport Recife away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.43 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.93 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Bragantino and Sport Recife runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2021, when RB Bragantino won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Sport Recife have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when RB Bragantino 1-1 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Sport Recife?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 71%, Sport Recife 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RB Bragantino) and 36% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Sport Recife in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 36% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 36% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Sport Recife tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Bragantino run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sport Recife.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Sport Recife 3-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.16 xG and Sport Recife 0.78 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Sport Recife attack 0.65 / defence 1.19, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 43% | Draw 35% | Sport Recife 22%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 54%, Sport Recife 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Sport Recife's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 61% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.