Gremio 1-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Palmeiras at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gremio — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Arena do Grêmio this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Palmeiras have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gremio at 1.00 PPG versus Palmeiras's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gremio have won 0, Palmeiras 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gremio trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 35% versus Palmeiras 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 31% | Palmeiras 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.08 xG and Palmeiras 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.075 / defence 1.312 | Palmeiras attack 0.980 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 0.940 / away 0.994. Data: 26 Gremio games / 28 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 30% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 39%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Palmeiras 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 50% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 30% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Gremio 1.08 / Palmeiras 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.075 / def 1.312 | Palmeiras attack 0.980 / def 1.070 | league avg home 0.940 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Palmeiras xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Palmeiras kick off?
Gremio vs Palmeiras kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Gremio 1 - 3 Palmeiras.
Where is Gremio vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Palmeiras part of?
Gremio vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 30% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gremio and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): Gremio 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Gremio and Palmeiras in?
Gremio (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gremio's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.19
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.36
1.28
Palmeiras xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gremio and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Gremio and 1.28 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gremio come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 5D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (14W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Gremio — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gremio's home form reads 4W 5D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.67 points per game from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gremio are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.50 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 7W 5D 14L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 14W 4D 8L in their last 26 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.42 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Gremio or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Palmeiras won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Gremio
1
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 2, Palmeiras have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gremio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 50%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gremio) and 58% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Palmeiras in 50%; Gremio have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gremio's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gremio's recent games and 58% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Gremio 1-3 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.08 xG and Palmeiras 1.28 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.07 / defence 1.31 against Palmeiras attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 26/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 30% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 39%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 31%, Palmeiras 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.