Gremio 1-2 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gremio at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Sport Recife encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Sport Recife travel to Arena do Grêmio to take on Gremio. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 October 2021, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena do Grêmio, Gremio have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sport Recife — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sport Recife have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Gremio are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Gremio's 30% rate and Sport Recife's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gremio, 1 for Sport Recife and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2021, ended 0–1 with Sport Recife winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Sport Recife in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 70% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Gremio 30% | Sport Recife 15%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 25% | Sport Recife 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.92 xG and Sport Recife 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.901 / defence 0.981 | Sport Recife attack 0.590 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 0.884 / away 1.036. Data: 20 Gremio games / 22 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 40% | Draw 39% | Sport Recife 21%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.50 | Draw 2.56 | Sport Recife 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 39% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 30% | Sport Recife 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Monday 4 Oct 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 40% | Draw 39% | Sport Recife 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Gremio 0.92 / Sport Recife 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.901 / def 0.981 | Sport Recife attack 0.590 / def 1.155 | league avg home 0.884 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Gremio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Sport Recife xG
29%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Sport Recife kick off?
Gremio vs Sport Recife kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 4 October 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Sport Recife?
Gremio 1 - 2 Sport Recife.
Where is Gremio vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Sport Recife part of?
Gremio vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 40% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 21% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Gremio and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Sport Recife?
Record (1 meetings): Gremio 0W | Draws 0 | Sport Recife 1W.
What form are Gremio and Sport Recife in?
Gremio (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Sport Recife (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gremio's attack rating (0.90) and Sport Recife's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
40%
2.52
39%
2.55
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
20.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Gremio xG
Total xG
1.52
0.60
Sport Recife xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.46
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.9 | 13.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.1 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.4%.
How many goals are Gremio and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Gremio and 0.60 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gremio's recent record stands at 6W 4D 10L from 20 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sport Recife, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 10L across 20 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.10 PPG, Sport Recife on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 3W 4D 3L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sport Recife's away record stands at 2W 3D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.30 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Sport Recife in 15%.
Defensively: Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Sport Recife in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 3W 7D 10L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Sport Recife away?
Gremio's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.30 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Gremio or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Sport Recife runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2025, when Gremio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gremio
0
Draws
3
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Gremio have won 1, Sport Recife have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Sport Recife 0-4 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Sport Recife?
Sport Recife have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sport Recife tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Gremio 30% BTTS, Sport Recife 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Gremio and 20% for Sport Recife.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sport Recife in 40%; Gremio have failed to score in 50% of games; Sport Recife in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Gremio's recent matches and 20% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Gremio's recent games and 20% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 30% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sport Recife defy the odds to beat Gremio 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife beat Gremio 1-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.92 xG and Sport Recife 0.60 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sport Recife outscored their 0.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Sport Recife attack 0.59 / defence 1.16, drawn from 20/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 40% | Draw 39% | Sport Recife 21%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Sport Recife win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 25%, Sport Recife 15%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 22%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sport Recife's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 15% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.10 PPG, Sport Recife 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sport Recife win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.