Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sao Paulo at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Condá plays host to Chapecoense-sc versus Sao Paulo in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 3 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Chapecoense-sc (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0W 2D 8L at Arena Condá — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Sao Paulo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sao Paulo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Sao Paulo are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Chapecoense-sc 0W, Sao Paulo 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Chapecoense-sc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Sao Paulo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 59% versus Sao Paulo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chapecoense-sc 46% | Sao Paulo 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.80 xG and Sao Paulo 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.679 / defence 1.526 | Sao Paulo attack 0.830 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 0.875 / away 1.050. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sao Paulo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Chapecoense-sc games / 22 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 21% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 48%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Sao Paulo 2.08. Sao Paulo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sao Paulo are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 40% | Sao Paulo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 21% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.80 / Sao Paulo 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.679 / def 1.526 | Sao Paulo attack 0.830 / def 1.349 | league avg home 0.875 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sao Paulo xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 21% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 48% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo?
Record (1 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 1 | Sao Paulo 0W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 0.68x the league average against Sao Paulo's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (0.83x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
21%
4.74
31%
3.20
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.13
1.33
Sao Paulo xG
4.74
21%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
6%
17.93
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.8 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.33 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chapecoense-sc come into this having played 22 games, going 1W 7D 14L for 0.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (6W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sao Paulo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Chapecoense-sc's home form reads 0W 2D 8L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 0.82 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Sao Paulo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 7D 14L in their last 22 games (0.45 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 6W 9D 7L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Sao Paulo away?
Sao Paulo's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.20 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Chapecoense-sc or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chapecoense-sc have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
2
Draws
1
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Sao Paulo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Sao Paulo 2-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 40%, Sao Paulo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Chapecoense-sc and 30% for Sao Paulo.
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 60% of games; Sao Paulo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chapecoense-sc's recent matches and 50% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chapecoense-sc's recent games and 30% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo finished level at 1-1 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.80 xG and Sao Paulo 1.33 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.68 / defence 1.53 against Sao Paulo attack 0.83 / defence 1.35, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 21% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 48%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 46%, Sao Paulo 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sao Paulo arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.