Gremio 2-2 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Gremio take on Cuiaba.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Cuiaba at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 7 October 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 3W 7D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gremio 1.50 PPG, Cuiaba 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gremio have won 1, Cuiaba 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Gremio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Gremio in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 33% versus Cuiaba 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 29% | Cuiaba 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.73 xG and Cuiaba 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.901 / defence 1.108 | Cuiaba attack 0.794 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.050. Data: 21 Gremio games / 23 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 25% | Draw 38% | Cuiaba 36%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 4.00 | Draw 2.63 | Cuiaba 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Gremio's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 40% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Oct 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 25% | Draw 38% | Cuiaba 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Gremio 0.73 / Cuiaba 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.901 / def 1.108 | Cuiaba attack 0.794 / def 0.904 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cuiaba xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Cuiaba kick off?
Gremio vs Cuiaba kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 7 October 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Cuiaba?
Gremio 2 - 2 Cuiaba.
Where is Gremio vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Cuiaba part of?
Gremio vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 25% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Gremio and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Cuiaba?
Record (1 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Gremio and Cuiaba in?
Gremio (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gremio's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
3.94
38%
2.60
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Gremio xG
Total xG
1.66
0.92
Cuiaba xG
3.94
25%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 17.6 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Gremio and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Gremio and 0.92 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gremio come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 4D 11L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (6W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.05 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gremio's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.60 points per game from 10 outings (3W 7D 0L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gremio are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 6W 10D 5L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Cuiaba away?
Cuiaba's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.30 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Gremio or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gremio go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Gremio's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Gremio
1
Draws
0
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Gremio have won 5, Cuiaba have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Cuiaba 1-3 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Cuiaba?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gremio see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 40%, Cuiaba 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Gremio and 30% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cuiaba in 60%; Gremio have failed to score in 40% of games; Cuiaba in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gremio's recent matches and 40% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Gremio's recent games and 30% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gremio and Cuiaba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 24, as Gremio and Cuiaba drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.73 xG and Cuiaba 0.92 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cuiaba outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Cuiaba attack 0.79 / defence 0.90, drawn from 21/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 25% | Draw 38% | Cuiaba 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 29%, Cuiaba 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.05 PPG, Cuiaba 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.