Sport Recife 0-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Sport Recife take on Fortaleza EC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sport Recife welcome Fortaleza EC to Itaipava Arena Pernambuco. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sport Recife — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Sport Recife) versus 1.20 (Fortaleza EC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sport Recife, 1 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2021, ended 0–1 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sport Recife in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 19% versus Fortaleza EC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 19% | Fortaleza EC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.61 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.479 / defence 0.909 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.905 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 0.879 / away 1.021. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.479 is below the league average — the 0.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Sport Recife's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Sport Recife games / 21 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 23% | Draw 41% | Fortaleza EC 36%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 4.35 | Draw 2.44 | Fortaleza EC 2.78. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.45. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.45 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 23% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.45 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 10% | Fortaleza EC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Itaipava Arena Pernambuco • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 23% | Draw 41% | Fortaleza EC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 28% | xG Sport Recife 0.61 / Fortaleza EC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.479 / def 0.909 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.905 / def 1.459 | league avg home 0.879 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.61
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Fortaleza EC xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Sport Recife 0 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 23% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 36% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sport Recife's attacking strength (0.48x league average) is weighed against Fortaleza EC's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.61. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (18.1%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
23%
4.37
41%
2.44
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.61
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.45
0.84
Fortaleza EC xG
4.37
23%
Home win
2.44
41%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.57
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
54%
1.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.13
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.4 | 19.6 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.9%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 0.61 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.84 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 1.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Sport Recife have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 3W 8D 10L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 9W 6D 6L from 21 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortaleza EC are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sport Recife.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sport Recife have posted 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Sport Recife are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.38 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Fortaleza EC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 3W 8D 10L in their last 21 games (0.81 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 9W 6D 6L in their last 21 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Fortaleza EC's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.70 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sport Recife's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
1
Draws
3
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Fortaleza EC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sport Recife 10% BTTS, Fortaleza EC 60%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Sport Recife and 50% for Fortaleza EC.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sport Recife have failed to score in 80% of games; Fortaleza EC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 10% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 60% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Sport Recife's recent games and 50% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Sport Recife 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Sport Recife 0-1 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.61 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.84 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.48 / defence 0.91 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.91 / defence 1.46, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 23% | Draw 41% | Fortaleza EC 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 45% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 19%, Fortaleza EC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.