Santos 2-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estádio Urbano Caldeira to face Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Santos have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Santos are significantly better at Estádio Urbano Caldeira than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fluminense are 1.10 PPG clear of Santos in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Santos lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2021, ended 0–1 with Fluminense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 37% versus Fluminense 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santos 41% | Fluminense 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 0.83 xG and Fluminense 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.737 / defence 1.177 | Fluminense attack 0.839 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 1.016. Santos's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Santos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Santos games / 27 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 27% | Draw 36% | Fluminense 37%. Fair-value odds: Santos 3.70 | Draw 2.78 | Fluminense 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Santos 20% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 27% | Draw 36% | Fluminense 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Santos 0.83 / Fluminense 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.737 / def 1.177 | Fluminense attack 0.839 / def 1.203 | league avg home 0.937 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Fluminense xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Fluminense kick off?
Santos vs Fluminense kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Fluminense?
Santos 2 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Santos vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Fluminense part of?
Santos vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 27% chance of winning, Fluminense a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Santos and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Fluminense?
Record (1 meetings): Santos 0W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Santos and Fluminense in?
Santos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Santos's attack at 0.74x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.84x) against Santos's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
27%
3.67
36%
2.76
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Santos xG
Total xG
1.83
1.00
Fluminense xG
3.67
27%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Santos and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Santos and 1.00 for Fluminense, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Santos's recent record stands at 6W 11D 10L from 27 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 8L across 27 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Santos against 1.44 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Santos have managed 5W 5D 3L from 13 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Santos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fluminense's away record stands at 4W 4D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Santos are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.04 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 6W 11D 10L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Fluminense away?
Santos's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.54 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Santos or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fluminense in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 0-3 on 29 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Santos
3
Draws
5
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Fluminense?
From 9 meetings on record, Santos have won 1, Fluminense have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Santos 2-3 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Santos see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Santos) and 46% (Fluminense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Santos and 38% for Fluminense.
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Santos have failed to score in 54% of games; Fluminense in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Santos's recent matches and 46% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Santos's recent games and 38% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Santos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fluminense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Fluminense 2-0 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 0.83 xG and Fluminense 1.00 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Santos beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fluminense landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.74 / defence 1.18 against Fluminense attack 0.84 / defence 1.20, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 27% | Draw 36% | Fluminense 37%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Santos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 41%, Fluminense 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.07 PPG, Fluminense 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.