Cuiaba 0-2 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Pantanal plays host to Cuiaba versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Cuiaba (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's home record at Arena Pantanal: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Pantanal this season.
America Mineiro have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.50 for America Mineiro. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cuiaba have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, America Mineiro in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cuiaba lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cuiaba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
America Mineiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 50% versus America Mineiro 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 41% | America Mineiro 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.21 xG and America Mineiro 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 1.009 / defence 1.351 | America Mineiro attack 0.764 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 1.024. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Cuiaba games / 22 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 38% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 30%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | America Mineiro 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Cuiaba 60% | America Mineiro 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 38% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Cuiaba 1.21 / America Mineiro 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 1.009 / def 1.351 | America Mineiro attack 0.764 / def 1.352 | league avg home 0.888 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.06
America Mineiro xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs America Mineiro kick off?
Cuiaba vs America Mineiro kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs America Mineiro?
Cuiaba 0 - 2 America Mineiro.
Where is Cuiaba vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs America Mineiro part of?
Cuiaba vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 38% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cuiaba and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and America Mineiro?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | America Mineiro 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and America Mineiro in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. America Mineiro (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cuiaba's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (0.76x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.12
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.27
1.06
America Mineiro xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.06 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cuiaba come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 11D 5L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (5W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.09 for America Mineiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cuiaba's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (1W 5D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cuiaba are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.86 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 6W 11D 5L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 5W 9D 8L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or America Mineiro away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.20 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
2
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, America Mineiro have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when Cuiaba 2-2 America Mineiro.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 60%, America Mineiro 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cuiaba) and 30% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 30% of games; America Mineiro in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play America Mineiro?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cuiaba's games and 60% of America Mineiro's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cuiaba vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cuiaba's recent games and 30% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
America Mineiro cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Cuiaba 0-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.21 xG and America Mineiro 1.06 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cuiaba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. America Mineiro outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 1.01 / defence 1.35 against America Mineiro attack 0.76 / defence 1.35, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 38% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 30%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual America Mineiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 41%, America Mineiro 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
America Mineiro's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.32 PPG, America Mineiro 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the America Mineiro win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.