Fortaleza EC 0-3 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atletico Goianiense make the trip to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to face Fortaleza EC in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortaleza EC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Goianiense's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Goianiense's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fortaleza EC, 1.20 for Atletico Goianiense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortaleza EC lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fortaleza EC — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Atletico Goianiense — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 48% versus Atletico Goianiense 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fortaleza EC 38% | Atletico Goianiense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.25 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.128 / defence 1.026 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.867 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 1.024. Atletico Goianiense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Fortaleza EC games / 21 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 42% | Draw 32% | Atletico Goianiense 25%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico Goianiense 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortaleza EC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 40% | Atletico Goianiense 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 42% | Draw 32% | Atletico Goianiense 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.25 / Atletico Goianiense 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.128 / def 1.026 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.867 / def 1.243 | league avg home 0.888 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Atletico Goianiense xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 3 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 42% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (1 meetings): Fortaleza EC 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico Goianiense 0W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 1.13x the league average against Atletico Goianiense's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Goianiense's attack (0.87x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.08
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.91
Atletico Goianiense xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.91 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortaleza EC come into this having played 21 games, going 9W 6D 6L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico Goianiense sit at 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (6W 9D 6L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.29 for Atletico Goianiense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fortaleza EC's home form reads 6W 3D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atletico Goianiense have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.81 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Atletico Goianiense in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 9W 6D 6L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 6W 9D 6L in their last 21 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 2.10 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Goianiense won 0-3 on 2 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Goianiense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
2
Draws
2
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Atletico Goianiense have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 3-1 Fortaleza EC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 40%, Atletico Goianiense 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Fortaleza EC) and 50% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 60% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 50% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atletico Goianiense run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense beat Fortaleza EC 0-3 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.25 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.91 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Atletico Goianiense outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.13 / defence 1.03 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.87 / defence 1.24, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 42% | Draw 32% | Atletico Goianiense 25%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Atletico Goianiense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 38%, Atletico Goianiense 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.57 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Goianiense win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.