Flamengo 0-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 18 October 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Flamengo have posted 6W 0D 4L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Flamengo against 1.70 for Cuiaba. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Flamengo 1W, Cuiaba 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 48% versus Cuiaba 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 56% | Cuiaba 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.21 xG and Cuiaba 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.321 / defence 1.183 | Cuiaba attack 0.861 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 0.923 / away 1.050. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 1.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 23 Flamengo games / 26 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 38% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 31%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Cuiaba 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 50% | Cuiaba 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 38% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Flamengo 1.21 / Cuiaba 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.321 / def 1.183 | Cuiaba attack 0.861 / def 0.994 | league avg home 0.923 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Cuiaba xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Cuiaba kick off?
Flamengo vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Flamengo 0 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Flamengo vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Cuiaba part of?
Flamengo vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 38% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Flamengo and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Cuiaba?
Record (1 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Cuiaba in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.32) and Cuiaba's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.86x) against Flamengo's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 23/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.15
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.28
1.07
Cuiaba xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.07 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Flamengo's recent record stands at 14W 3D 6L from 23 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 5L across 23 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 6W 0D 4L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 3W 7D 0L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.04 scored and 1.00 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against Cuiaba's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 14W 3D 6L in their last 23 games (1.96 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 7W 11D 5L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Cuiaba away?
Flamengo's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.80 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cuiaba won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Cuiaba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Cuiaba?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 50%, Cuiaba 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Flamengo) and 40% (Cuiaba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 50%; Flamengo have failed to score in 30% of games; Cuiaba in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Flamengo's recent matches and 50% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Flamengo's matches and 40% of Cuiaba's.
Do Flamengo and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Flamengo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo and Cuiaba finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.21 xG and Cuiaba 1.07 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cuiaba landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.32 / defence 1.18 against Cuiaba attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 38% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 31%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 56%, Cuiaba 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.